This morning (13th Oct) sunspot 1865 produced an M1.7 solar flare and a weak CME. We have seen reports on it all day but we wanted to wait until there was more analysis on it (which there now is).
As it was an earth facing sunspot, it will be pretty much be a direct hit, or quite close to one anyway. So even though it was only a modest flare and weak CME it is highly possible to cause geomagnetic storming.
Now there is more good news. Shortly before the flare and CME are due to arrive (15th/16th more exact time will follow on the forecast page), A CH HSS will also have become geoffective.
Take a look yourself here on the WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction tool : http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
The 3 things hitting earth (the green dot) in that image are in this order First the CH HSS, then the flare, then the CME cloud.
Early predictions suggest G1 storm (Kp5) on the 15th.
When these 3 events are due to arrive, they will be staggered, maybe a couple hours between them, so it is going to be a long night. So have your coffee ready.
Remember the last CME that arrived 8th October was meant to be weak also and that reached Kp6. This CME does look pretty faint though, so it is the flare that will arrive before it that looks like it will deliver the most activity. With all three elements combined who knows what will happen. There is no accurate prediction for that.