Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

6th October


Solar activity was low. A few weak C-class flares were observed from
Regions 2177 (N13W62, Axx/alpha), 2181 (S11W52, Dsi/beta-gamma) and 2184
(S17E32, Axx/alpha). Regions 2181 and 2182 (S15W10, Cai/beta) exhibited
intermediate spot development. All other regions on the disk were either
stable or in decay. New Region 2185 (S14E49, Bxo/beta) emerged on the
disk during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low (Below R1-Minor) for the next three
days (06-08 Oct).

5th October


Solar activity was low (Below R1-Minor) due to single C1/Sf at 05/0954
UTC from Region 2178 (S01W31, Cai/beta). This region remained unchanged
during the period.

Regions 2181 (S12W39, Dai/beta-delta) and 2182 (S15E03, Cso/beta)
exhibited growth during the past 24 hours but remained unproductive. All
other regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

4th October


Solar activity was low (Below R1-Minor). A few weak C-class events were
observed from Regions 2172 (S10, L=242), 2177 (N15W32, Bx0/beta) and
2178 (S01W17, Cai/beta).

Region analysis observed trailer spot decay as Region 2176 (N19W73,
Cao/beta) approached the west limb. Region 2181 (S11W24, Dao/beta)
exhibited rapid growth throughout the region, particularly in the
trailer portion. Region 2182 (S14E17, Cao/beta) showed some trailer spot
development. All other regions were stable and quiet. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected.

3rd October


Solar activity was high. Region 2173 (now around the west limb) produced
the largest event of the period, an M7/1f (R2-Moderate) at 02/1901 UTC.
Region 2172 (S08W89, Axx/alpha) produced a sympathetic M1/Sf (R1-Minor)
just prior to that event at 02/1744 UTC. The M7 flare had an associated
two Type II radio sweep (est. speeds 713 km/s) and a Type IV radio
sweep. Initial imagery indicated that the bulk of the material ejected
well south and west of the ecliptic. After further analysis was
completed a Earth-directed CME has been ruled out. A similar event
occurred again later in the period from a C9/Sf flare with another limb
event CME with a trajectory off to the SW and away from Earth. This
event also appears to have come from Region 2173. All other regions on
the disk were either stable or in decay.

2nd October


Solar activity was low. Despite a lack of flare activity, x-ray
background levels were above C1. While several complex regions remain on
the solar disk, all were inactive and unremarkable. Two CMEs were
visible in NASA SOHO LASCO during the period. The first a narrow event
from the East limb associated with a filament eruption. The second also
narrow, an event believed to be sourced from around the East limb. No
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.

1st October


Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C6/Sf at
30/0306 UTC from Region 2172 (S09W69, Fao/beta-gamma). All other regions
on the disk were either stable or in decay. While several complex
regions remain on the solar disk, as well as multiple filaments, no
significant activity occurred during the period and there were no
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.

30th September


Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C3/Sf at
30/2132 UTC from Region 2173 (N11E31, Eai/beta-gamma). While several
complex regions remain on the solar disk, as well as multiple filaments,
no significant activity occurred during the period and there were no
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.

29th September


Solar activity was at moderate levels (R1-minor) due to an M1/Sf flare
observed at 28/1733 UTC from Region 2173 (S16W46, Dac/beta-gamma)
accompanied by weak multi-spectral radio emissions. This region remained
little changed over the past 24 hours. Region 2176 (N08W07, Bxo/beta)
redeveloped from plage and produced a C2/Sf flare at 29/0351 UTC. In the
NE quadrant, Region 2177 (N11E37, Eac/beta-gamma) produced a C5/Sf at
29/0554 UTC and indicated intermediate spot development and overall
growth.

Additional region analysis indicated an overall increase in area in
Region 2172 (S12W37, Fhc/beta-gamma) and remained the largest region on
the disk at 630 millionths. Region 2175 (N17W58, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta),
at 500 millionths, exhibited trailer spot consolidation and an overall
increase in area. Both of these regions remained relatively quiet. The
remaining three spotted regions were quiet and showed no change.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.

12th September


Solar activity reached moderate levels during the period due to a pair
of M-class flares from a yet unnumbered region just rotating around the
NE limb. The first was an M2 flare at 11/1526 UTC which had an
associated 210 sfu 10cm radio burst. The second was an M1 flare at
11/2126 UTC. Region 2157 (S14W31, Ekc/beta-gamma) had slight decay
within its smaller intermediate spot area and produced a C9/1f flare at
12/0224 UTC. Region 2158 (N16W19, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) appeared to
have further separation in its northern spots along with a weak delta in
the NE portion of the group. The rest of the spotted regions were
either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed during the period.

11th September


Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2158 (N16W06, Dkc/beta-gamma)
produced largest solar event of the period, an X1/2b flare (R3/Strong)
at 10/1745 UTC, along with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps,
a 10cm radio burst, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME).

While the 9 Sep CME, mentioned in previous discussions, is still
expected to arrive early in the day on 12 Sep, the latest analysis of
the WSA Enlil solar wind model indicated the CME associated with
yesterdayâ??s X1/2b flare is likely to have an Earthward component as
well. This second CME has an estimated speed near 1400 km/s and is
expected to pass the Earth’s magnetosphere mid to late day (universal
time) on 12 Sep.

Region 2158 exhibited a fairly pronounced ring of intermediate spots
surrounding the main leader spot, indicative of significant mixing and
instability, but has since shown signs of decay and reorganization of
these spots. Region 2157 (S14W18, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its
delta magnetic configuration yet was fairly inactive during the period.
The remaining spot groups appeared to be stable and predominantly
inactive throughout the period.