Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

16th October


Solar activity was low. A C7 flare occurred from the southeast limb at
16/0737 UTC. A Type IV radio sweep was reported at 16/0722 UTC and some
material could be seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery surging south of the flare
location. A C6 flare followed at 16/0923 UTC from the same area, likely
the vicinity of Old Regions 2172 (S12, L=241) and 2173 (S14, L=250).
Coronagraph imagery is not yet available for this event.

The seven numbered regions on the visible disk were either stable or
decaying. Regions 2185 (S15W85) and 2188 (N18W56) decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed CMEs were noted.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next three days (16-18
Oct) as old Regions 2172 and 2173 return. C-class events are expected,
with a slight chance of another M-class (R1-minor) radio blackout event.

15th October


Solar activity reached moderate levels with impulsive M1 flare (R1 radio
blackout) at 14/1837 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare (1300
sfu), but no other CME related radio signatures. The flare appeared to
have originated beyond the east limb in the vicinity of Old Regions 2172
and 2173. These regions are expected to return over the next 24 hours.

A CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery,
first visible at 13/1900 UTC. Analysis using C3 imagery suggested a
plane-of-sky speed near 800 km/s for the ejecta. Its origin beyond the
east limb makes interaction with Earth unlikely.

A long duration M-class event followed shortly after from the same
vicinity. It began at 14/1907 UTC and had reached a peak of M2 by
14/2121 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare of 180 sfu.

Two new regions were numbered overnight, Region 2090 (N23E53, Bxo/beta)
and 2191 (S13E48, Bxo/beta) but otherwise unremarkable. The remaining
regions on the disk were stable.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next three days (15-17
Oct) as old Regions 2172 and 2173 return. C-class events will be
likely, with a slight but increasing chance of an M-class (R1-minor
radio blackout) event.

14th October


Solar activity was very low. The four spotted groups on the visible
solar disk were stable. Regions 2187 (S10E49, Eao/beta) and 2186
(S21W13, Hsx/alpha) were the largest. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed during the period, however a 10 degree filament eruption
occurred between 14/0844-0934 UTC, centered at S22W41. Loops of GONG
H-alpha imagery and SDO/AIA 304 imagery suggest the ejecta was directed
southward. Further analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery is
received.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (14-16
Oct).

13th October


Solar activity declined to very low levels with a few B-class X-ray
events recorded. Region 2187 (S10E60, Eso/beta) continues to rotate onto
the disk and was stable. Region 2186 (S10W00, Cso/beta) was also stable
and unremarkable during the period. New flux emergence was observed near
N18W06.

At about 13/2330 UTC, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed surging on or behind
the SW limb near S12, in the vicinity of old Region 2182 (S15, L=123).
LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME off the WSW limb, first observed at
13/0000 UTC. Due to the extreme western location of this event, no Earth
impact is expected from the resultant CME.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) activity for the next three days (13-15 Oct).

12th October


Solar activity increased to low levels. New Region 2187 (S10E70,
Cso/beta) was responsible for a few low-level C-class flares, the
largest a C2 at 12/0515 UTC. The other two spotted regions on the disk
were quiet and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) activity for the next three days (12-14 Oct).

11th October


Solar activity was at low levels (below R1-minor). At 10/1647 UTC, a
parallel ribbon Hyder Flare was observed in conjunction with an eruption
of an ~15 degree filament near S20W50. The X-ray emissions of the flare
measured C3 with no associated radio emissions. Analysis of the
associated CME confirmed the trajectory was to the south and west, with
little or no plasma component expected on the Sun-Earth line.

The two spotted regions on the disk, Region 2182 (S15W76, Dac/beta) and
Region 2186 (S20E25, Cso/beta) were both quiet and inactive. Both
regions appear to be decreasing in magnetic complexity, areal coverage,
and threat potential.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-Minor) for day one (11 Oct), as Region 2182 continues to decay and
move towards the limb. Low activity with a slight chance for a R1 event
is expected for days two and three (12-13 Oct).

10th October


Solar activity declined to low levels (below R1-minor) due to a pair of
weak C-class flares from Region 2182 (S15W63, Dac/beta-gamma), the
largest a C1/Sf at 09/1303 UTC. Over the past 24 hours, this region
exhibited overall decay as it approached the west limb, but maintained a
weak beta-gamma magnetic configuration. All other regions were either
stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-Minor) for the next three days (10-12 Oct), most likely from Region
2182.

9th October


Solar activity was Moderate. Region 2182 (S14W51, Dsc/beta-gamma)
produced all notable solar activity over the period, including three M1
flares (NOAA Scale R1 – minor). One of these events, at 09/0659 UTC, had
a 1 brilliant (1B) optical classification as well. All three events were
fairly impulsive and lacked any associated CME related radio signatures,
so no CMEs are believed to have resulted. However verification of this
will be completed once more imagery becomes available. Region 2182
displays some signs of modest growth and increased in magnetic
complexity, but is by no means an exceptional active spot group at this
time. Region 2186 (S19E54, Cso/beta) exhibited some modest growth as
well while rotating onto the visible disk, but remained inactive. All
other regions were unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M level flares
(R1-Minor) for the next three days (09-11 Oct), due to Region 2182.

8th October


Solar activity was low. Activity consisted of a few lower level C-class
flares which originated from a spotless plage region near N15E40. All of
the spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A coronal mass
ejection was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the
southern hemisphere at 07/1829 UTC. This eruption may have been
associated with filament activity between 07/1515 and 07/1627 observed
in GONG H-alpha imagery as well as SDO/AIA 193 imagery. The event
appears narrow and directed well south and no Earth directed component
is expected.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low (Below R1-Minor)for the next three
days (08-10 Oct).

7th October


Solar activity was low. A C3/Sf flare was observed near Region 2185
(S14E35, now decayed to plage) in conjunction with a filament eruption
centered near S14E59. Imagery analysis determined that the CME was too
far east to be Earth-directed. All other regions were either quiet or
stable.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low (Below R1-Minor) for the next three
days (07-09 Oct).