Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

11th November

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2205 (N15W15,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) again produced the largest flare of the period, a
C6 flare at 11/1122 UTC. This region exhibited slight growth in its
intermediate spots, but decreased in overall areal coverage. New region
2208 (S12E50, Cao/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate spots, near
the trailer spot area. This spot group has begun to show signs of
activity, producing several optical flares during the period. The rest
of the spotted regions were relatively stable over the period. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast…
As Region 2205 continues to transit the visible solar disk, solar
activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate conditions
(R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) on day one (11 Nov). Increasing flare activity
with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class (R3 or greater)
flare activity for days two and three (12-13 Nov) is expected. Further
significant flare activity is possible as old Region 2192 (S12, L=263)
is expected to rotate around the east limb late on day one (11 Nov), and
is expected to be the likely source of increased solar activity.

29th October

Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. Region 2192
(S12W78, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced three M-class (R1-minor) flares
during the period, including an M1/Sf at 28/1406 UTC, an M1/Sf at
29/0820 UTC, and an M1 at 29/1001 UTC. As with the vast majority of the
previous flare activity, no significant radio signatures were noted, and
none of the events appeared to produce significant Earth-directed
eruptions.

Due to Region 2192′s location, just rotating off the visible disk,
accurate areal coverage and magnetic structure are difficult to
determine. However, based on the imagery available as it transits the
limb, it looked to be mostly unchanged and still very capable of
producing M- (R1/R2- Minor-Moderate) and X- (R3-Strong) class flares.

Regions 2197 (S13E08, Dso/beta) and 2198 (S13W25, Dso/beta) both
exhibited signs of growth, while the other regions on the visible disk
were either stable or in decay.

27th October

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2192 (S12W52,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of R2 (Moderate) flares (M7 at
27/0034 UTC and M6 at 27/1009 UTC) as well as six R1 (Minor) flares this
period. Region 2192 began to show signs of minor penumbral decay and
umbral consolidation but persists as the most productive and threatening
region on the solar disk. The other regions on the visible disk were
either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed this period.

.Forecast…
Continued M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is expected
and X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity is likely over the next three
days (27-29 Oct) due to Region 2192′s persistent activity.

25th October

Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 2192 (S12W27,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long duration X3/3f flare at 24/2141
UTC as well as a long duration C9 flare at 25/0808 UTC, which were the
largest events of the period. Region 2192 exhibited penumbral growth in
its leader spot area with umbral consolidation in its trailer spot area,
and persists as the most threatening region on the visible disk. Minor
growth was observed in the trailer spot area of Region 2195 (N08E40,
Dso/beta) and the other regions on the disk were either stable or in
decay. A narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X3
flare was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/2148 UTC but
was directed well south of the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed this period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) with
a chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three
days (25-27 Oct) with Region 2192 being the likely source.

24th October

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels this period. Region 2192
(S12W14, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M4-flare at 24/0748
UTC as well as multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 2192 persists as the largest and most productive region on the
visible disk although a minor decay trend was observed as separation
between the leader and follower spot areas increased slightly this
period. New Regions 2196 (S04E72, Axx/alpha) and 2197 (S12E69,
Axx/alpha) were numbered this period but were otherwise unremarkable.
The other regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

.Forecast…
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is expected with a
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) over the next three days (24-26 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source or further activity.

22nd October

Region 2192 (S15E19, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8 (R2, moderate)
flare at 22/0159 UTC, with no optical counterpart reported, bringing
solar activity to high levels for the period. The event was accompanied
by a Tenflare (590 sfu) and a Type IV radio sweep. Region 2192 also
produced two impulsive M-flares (M1 at 21/1338 UTC and M2/Sf at 22/0517
UTC). The M1 event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (est
speed 876 km/s) at 21/1342 UTC. Another Type II signature was reported
at 21/1249 UTC (est speed 662 km/s). The region continued to grow,
reaching 2410 micro-hemispheres, with intermediate spot development and
leader-trailer separation evident on SDO/HMI intensitygram loops.

The most recently received SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery revealed
three very faint CMEs, first visible at 21/1248, 21/1724 and 21/2128
UTC. None were observed in C3 imagery, but appeared to be associated
with narrow plumes of material ejected from the southern portion of
Region 2192, evident in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. Another plume was noted
beginning at 22/0239 UTC, but corresponding coronagraph imagery has not
yet been received. In each case, the material is ejected to the south.
Similar to the analysis of yesterday’s CME, these faint, slow events are
not thought to pose a significant threat. Further analysis will be
conducted as imagery is received.

Elsewhere on the disk, both Regions 2187 (S08W60, Cso/beta) and 2194
(S13E51, Cso/beta) were stable, while new intermediate spots emerged in
Region 2193 (N04W25, Dao/beta).

Finally, a new region has begun to rotate on in the northeast quadrant
of the disk and is being evaluated.

.Forecast…
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate to high levels. There is a
slight but persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over
the next three days (22-24 Oct) from this same region.

21st October

Solar activity was moderate. Region 2192 (S15E26,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced four M-class(NOAA Scale R1, minor)
flares and several C-class events over the past 24 hours. The largest
flare was an M4/2n event at 20/1637 UTC. Region 2192 continued to grow,
reaching approximately 2400 micro-hemispheres by 21/0137 UTC.

New Region 2194 (S14E64, Dao/beta) rotated onto the visible disk and was
numbered. The remaining two spotted regions were stable or decaying.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate levels. There is a slight but
persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over the next
three days (21-23 Oct) from this same region.

20th October

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 2192 (S13E36,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M3/1n flare at 20/0911 UTC
which was the largest event of the period. In addition, Region 2192
produced a C9/1f flare at 20/0602 UTC and multiple mid-level C-class
flares throughout the period. Region 2192 persists as the most
productive and threatening region on the visible disk and continued to
develop throughout the period. Region 2193 (N05E02, Dro/beta) exhibited
minor growth this period while the other regions on the visible disk
were relatively stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed this period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Oct) with Region
2192 being the likely source of solar activity.

18th October

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/Sf
flare from Region 2192 (S15E63, Eki/beta-gamma) at 18/0758 UTC. Region
2192 also produced a multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the
period and appeared to be increasing in both size and magnetic
complexity as it continues to rotate into full view. The other regions
on the visible disk were stable. A filament eruption (approx 8 degree
extent) centered near N15W10 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
18/0740-0938 UTC. No coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this writing to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with either the M-flare or the filament eruption occurred.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source.

17th October

Solar activity was moderate. An impulsive M4 flare occurred in the
vicinity of newly numbered Region 2192 (S16E66, Cao/beta) at 16/1303
UTC. This region was also responsible for a handful of C-class events
including a C6 flare at 17/0500 UTC. The remaining regions on the
visible disk were either stable or decaying.

One, or possibly more, CMEs were evident in a SOHO/LASCO image at
17/1012 UTC. There were no obvious sources on the Earth-facing side, so
it is believed these are far-side events. Analysis will continue as
imagery is received.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low; more C-class events are expected
with a chance of another M-class (R1-minor) radio blackout event.