Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

6th December

.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the period. Region 2222
(S20W57, Cki/beta-gamma) produced an M1 flare at 05/1225 UTC. The region
also produced a few low-level C-class flares. As Region 2222 approached
the west limb, it continued to exhibit decay in its intermediate and
trailer spots, but maintained weak magnetic polarity mixing.

New Regions 2229 (S23E28, Bxo/beta) and 2230 (S15E62, Hax/alpha) were
numbered this period. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. No
CMEs were detected over the past 24 hours.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for another
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare during the period (06-08 Dec),
particularly from Region 2222.

4th December

Solar activity increased to moderate levels when Region 2222 (S19W37,
Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1/1n flare at 04/0810 UTC followed by a C5
flare from the same region at 04/0856 UTC. The intermediate and
trailing portions of Region 2222 decayed during the period. New flux
emergence was noted near N09W05 and is being monitored. The remaining
regions were stable or decaying. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
noted during the past 24 hours. However a small filament appeared to
erupt between 04/0200-0600 UTC south of Region 2225, based on movie
loops of GONG H-Alpha and SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Further analysis will be
accomplished once coronagraph imagery has been received.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for another
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (04 -
06 Dec), particularly from Region 2222.

2nd December

Solar activity declined to low levels. Region 2217 (S16W51,
Dai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sn at
02/0805 UTC. Region 2217 grew over the past 24 hours and flux emergence
was observed in the intermediate portion of the region. Region 2222
(S19W10, Eki/beta-gamma) produced three low-level C-class events,
including a C2/Sf at 02/0429 UTC, and remained the largest region on the
visible disk. Its leader and intermediate spots grew.

No Earth-directed CMEs were noted during the past 24 hours.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance
for another M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (02 -
04 Dec), particularly from Region 2222 or 2217.

1st December

Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an M1/1n flare at
01/0641 UTC from Region 2222 (S21E09, Eki/beta-gamma). A weak Tenflare
of 180 sfu accompanied this event. Region 2222 remains the largest
region on the visible disk and indicated little change during the
period.

Numerous low-level C-class flares were also observed from Regions 2216
(S14W70, Eki/beta-gamma), 2217 (S17W32, Dao/beta-gamma), 2219 (N03W76,
Cao/beta-gamma) and 2221 (N03E12, Cao/beta). Both Regions 2219 and 2221
exhibited some area decay and spot loss while the remaining regions were
little changed. New Region 2226 (S19W16, Cao/beta) emerged on the disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a continued chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (01 – 03
Dec).

28th November

Solar activity was at low levels through the period with Region 2222
(S20E50, Ehc/beta-gamma) producing the majority of the C-class activity.
This region produced the largest flare of the period; a C7/Sf flare at
28/0040 UTC. Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 2222 as
it continued to rotate onto the disk.

Slight elongation was noted in Region 2219 (N04W28, Eai/beta-gamma).
Region 2221 (N04E49, Dac/beta-gamma) indicated overall growth in area,
particularly in its intermediate spots, and developed some mixed
magnetic polarity within the leader portion of the group. New Region
2224 (S24E35, Bxo/beta) developed on the disk this period. The
remaining regions were stable and indicated little change.

Other activity consisted of a C2 x-ray event recorded at 28/0422 UTC.
The event was associated with a filament eruption observed in GONG and
SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery between 28/0415-0500 UTC. The 8 degree long
filament was centered near S18E42, to the NW of Regions 2222 and 2224,
and was observed lifting off the SE portion of the disk. No coronagraph
data was available at the time of this report to determine if there was
an associated CME. Further analysis is ongoing.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (28-30
Nov), particularly from Regions 2219, 2221 and 2222. This is based on
these three region’s magnetic complexity and steady growth.

26th November

Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C2/Sn at 26/0617 UTC from Region 2217 (S20E36, Eai/beta-gamma),
which decayed in the intermediate and trailer portions. The only region
to exhibit any significant growth was Region 2219 (N05W08, Dri/beta),
which was responsible for a C1/Sf flare at 26/0034 UTC. The remaining
regions were stable or decaying. A new region near N03E78 is being
monitored and appears to have been responsible for a C1 flare at 25/2045
UTC.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels. A chance remains for an
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), during the period (26-28 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2217 appear to be the most likely sources for any
significant flare production.

24th November

Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2209 (S15W63,
Fko/beta-gamma-delta), 2216 (S14E20, Dkc/beta-gamma), and 2217
(S19E60,Cko/beta) continued to produce low-level C-class flaring. The
largest event of the period was a long duration C4 flare at 24/1104 UTC
from Region 2217. In addition to the C4 flare, Region 2217 also produced
a C3 flare at 23/1053 UTC and two C2 flares at 23/1846 UTC and 23/1941
UTC, respectively.

Region 2209 displayed slight decay in its intermediate spots, and only
produced a single C2/Sf flare during the period. Region 2216 had slight
separation between its leader and intermediate spots, had slight growth
in overall areal coverage, but exhibited magnetic simplification, losing
its delta configuration. Spot development was observed in the
intermediate and trailer areas of Region 2217 as it rotated further onto
the visible disk. New Region 2218 (N14E57, Cso/beta) rotated on to the
visible disk and was numbered during the period. An eruptive filament
located just South of Region 2209 was first observed in SDO/AIA 304
imagery at approximately 24/0709 UTC. Lack of LASCO coronagraph imagery
is preventing analysis at this time, but a comprehensive analysis will
be conducted as imagery fills in.

23rd November

Solar activity was at low levels. There were three numbered regions on
the visible disk, each contributing to the overall flare count. Region
2209 (S13W51, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) displayed minor growth in its
intermediate spots, just south of the main leader, and maintained its
delta configuration in the large trailer. It produced three C-class
flares, including a C3 flare at 22/1713 UTC, one of largest events of
the period. Region 2216 (S15E34, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) developed a weak
delta configuration in its northern most intermediate spots, while
continuing to exhibit slight separation overall, yet only managed to
produce a single C2 flare at 22/1441 UTC. New Region 2217 (S20E73,
Hax/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk with only one large spot
visible, appearing as an H-type group. This region produced three
C-class flares as well, including a C3 flare at 23/1053 UTC, also one of
largest events of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were observed.

.Forecast…
Moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an
X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) during the period (23-25 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for
significant flare production.

17th November

Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2209
(S14E24, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M5 flare at 16/1748 UTC and
an associated 300 sfu Ten cm radio burst. There did not appear to be a
coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the event in SDO/AIA nor
SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. This region exhibited slight decay of
the smaller leader spot, with slight growth in the large trailer spots.
A C6 flare was observed in GOES-15 SXI imagery at 17/0907 UTC. This
flare appeared to be just beyond the West limb near the approximate
location of old Region 2205 (N15, L=001). LASCO coronagraph imagery will
be analyzed as it becomes available to determine if there was an
associated CME. The rest of the spotted regions continued to be in a
decay phase with the exception of newly numbered Region 2214 (S13E53,
Cro/beta) which emerged on the SE limb.

Reanalysis of the CME associated with the M3/1n flare at 15/2046 UTC
suggests there was likely an Earthward portion of the plasma cloud, with
an expected arrival at Earth near midday on 19 Nov. However, with an
estimated speed of approximately 475 km/s and the solar wind environment
forecast to already be enhanced by the coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS), little impact is expected as the CME will likely be absorbed
in the high speed stream.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
for the next three days (17-19 Nov) with a chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong or greater) during the period. Region 2209 continues to be
the likely source for significant flaring.

13th November

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2205 (N14W45, Dac/beta-gamma)
exhibited slight decay in its trailer spots, consolidation in the
intermediate and leader spots, and was fairly inactive during the
period. Region 2207 (S09E09, Hax/alpha) was quiescent again this period.
Region 2208 (S12E22, Dsc/beta-gamma) was responsible for the majority of
the flare activity, producing several C-class flares. Although this
region had an overall decrease in areal coverage, it did increase to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 2209 (S15E69, Hsx/alpha) had
additional spots emerge from around the east limb, which are believed to
be the leader spots associated with returning old Region 2192. This
region was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a C8 flare
at 12/0607 UTC. Regions 2210 (N05E39, Axx/alpha) and 2211 (N08W33,
Bx0/beta) were numbered during the period, but were stable and
unremarkable. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to increase, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely for days one through three (13-15 Nov).
The remainder of Region 2209 is expected to rotate on to the visible
disk, Region 2208 is expected to become more active, and the continued
presence of Region 2205 all combine to keep a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong or greater) flare activity for day one (13 Nov), increasing
to a chance on days two and three (14-15 Nov).