Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

17th November


Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/Sn flare at 17/0510
UTC from Region 1900 (S19W48, Dac/beta-gamma). A C4/Sf flare occurred
at 17/0801 UTC from Region 1893 (S13W45, Dkc/beta-delta) that had an
associated filament eruption. SDO/AIA 304 imagery showed a SW directed
coronal mass ejection (CME) from the C4 flare beginning at 17/0802 UTC.
It is unlikely that the CME has an Earth-directed component, however we
are waiting on further SOHO/LASCO imagery to make a final determination.
Slight growth was observed in both Regions 1897 (S20W08, Fac/beta-gamma)
and 1893. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in
decay.

16th November


Solar activity was at moderate levels due to two M1 flares at 16/0453
UTC and 16/0749 UTC from Region 1900 (S19W35, Dac/beta). Region 1900
exhibited umbral separation and slight decay in its trailing spots.
Slight growth was observed in the northern area of Region 1893 (S13W32,
Dkc/beta-delta). Region 1899 (N06E30, Dko/beta-gamma) had slight decay
in its smaller trailing spots. Slight growth was observed in Regions
1897 (S20E03, Fac/beta-gamma-delta) and 1902 (N20W13, Dso/beta). The
rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

15th November


Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/Sf flare at 15/0229
UTC from Region 1899 (N06E42, Dko/beta). Slight decay was observed in
the smaller trailing spots in Region 1899 and in the intermediate spots
of Region 1897 (S21E19, Eac/beta-gamma-delta). Moderate growth was
observed in Region 1900 (S19W22, Dac/beta-gamma). Slight growth was
observed in newly numbered Region 1901 (S24W50, Cro/beta). The rest of
the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

14th November


Solar activity was moderate. Region 1897 (S21E32, Fkc/beta-gamma)
produced the largest flare of the period, an M1 at 13/1520 UTC. This
region was also responsible for several low level C-class flares
throughout the period. Region 1890 (S12W77, Eao/beta) also produced
several C-class flares as it approached the western limb. Region 1899
(N06E42, Dki/beta) showed significant growth in overall areal coverage
as well as its leader spots. Region 1893 (S13W04, Dsi/beta) also
exhibited slight growth in area as well as its leader spot, but remained
fairly inactive. All other regions on the visible disk were
unremarkable. While there were three coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
observed in Lasco imagery, none were determined to be Earth directed.

13th November


Solar activity was low. Region 1897 (S21E44, Ekc/beta-gamma) was the
most active spot group and produced several C-class flares, including
the largest flare of the period, a C9/Sf at 12/2308 UTC. It exhibited
growth in areal coverage as well as slight separation in its
intermediate spots. Region 1890 (S11W62, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) also
produced several C-class flares and remained the most magnetically
complex region on the disk. This region grew slightly and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta configuration as it moved closer to the western limb.
Region 1893 (S13E09, Cso/beta) showed some reorganization of
intermediate spots but remained mostly inactive. All other regions on
the visible disk were unremarkable. Three coronal mass ejections were
observed in Lasco C2/C3 imagery during the period, but analysis
indicated none were on the sun-Earth plane and would have little effect
on Earth.

12th November


Solar activity was low. Region 1890 (S11W49, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced several C-class flares, including the largest event of the
period, a C5/Sf at 11/1701 UTC. This region exhibited consolidation in
its trailer spots and minor separation in the leader spots, but
maintained its beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 1897 (S18E57,
Ekc/beta-gamma) also produced a few C-class flares and grew in size and
complexity. This new region appears to be fairly large and dynamic,
although the exact size and magnetic complexity remain difficult to
determine given its proximity to the limb. The other regions on the
visible disk were stable or decaying and were unremarkable. A
long-duration C3 flare occurred at 12/0527 UTC and had an associated
coronal mass ejection (CME). Initial analysis indicated most of the
ejected had a primarily southwesterly trajectory. Analysis is on-going
to determine if there is any Earth-directed component of the CME.

11th November


Solar activity was moderate. New Region 1897 (S18E65, Eho/beta) produced
the largest event of the period, an M2 at 11/1118 UTC. The region was
numbered overnight and appears to be fairly large although exact size
and magnetic complexity is difficult to determine given its proximity to
the limb. Region 1890 (S12W41, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained relatively
stable during the past 24 hours but did produce a C7/Sf at 11/0048 UTC.
We are awaiting the return of old Region 1875 (N07, L=030) which was
moderately productive last rotation and appeared to be very active
during its transit along the backside of the disk. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the period.

10th November


Solar activity was high. Region 1890 (S11W22, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
once again produced an X1/2b flare (NOAA scale R3-strong) at 10/0514
UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The flare was also
accompanied by a type-II radio sweep, estimated at 1012 km/s, a type-IV
radio sweep, as well as a Tenflare of 360 sfu. Coronal dimming and
post-eruption arcade were also visible with the flare, indicating a
likely coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysis will be conducted to
determine geoeffectiveness of the CME as soon as data is available in
STEREO and Lasco C2/C3 imagery. Region 1890 remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the disk and maintained its delta
magnetic configuration. The other regions on the disk were either
stable or decaying. New Region 1895 (S16E71, Hsx/alpha) was numbered
over night as it rotated onto the east limb.

9th November


Solar activity was low. Region 1890 (S11W10, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
continued to be the largest, most complex spot group on the visible
disk. However, activity has greatly decreased from this region, despite
maintaining its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, producing just
a single C2/1f flare over the past 24 hours. Region 1891 (S18W44,
Dao/beta) showed signs of decay and produced little to no x-ray flare
activity during the period. The remaining four numbered spot regions
were either stable or decaying and were unremarkable. Further analysis
of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M2 flare
determined this CME was not likely to have an Earth-directed component.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

8th November


Solar activity was high (NOAA Scale R3-Strong) for the past 24 hours.
Region 1890 (S11E03, Ehc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of
the period, an X1/2b flare at 08/0426 UTC. This flare was associated
with a Type II radio sweep (estimated at 800 km/s), a Type IV radio
sweep, and a 100 sfu Tenflare. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME)
was detected in LASCO/C2 imagery starting at 08/0424 UTC and is expected
to have an Earth-directed component. The M2/1n flare from Region 1890,
reported in the previous forecast discussion, was determined to have an
Earth-directed component. Analysis is ongoing to determine the timing
and intensity of these effects. Region 1891 (S18W31, Dac/beta-delta)
produced an M2/1b flare at 08/0928 UTC. Further imagery is needed to
determine the potential impact of this event. A new spot group emerged
on the southeastern limb but has not rotated completely into view.
Forecasters will classify this group once it becomes completely visible.