Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

6 January


Solar activity was at low levels, however an eruptive prominence on the
west limb, visible in GOES 15/SXI imagery at 06/0744 UTC and reported by
ground-based observatories at 06/0755 UTC, signaled an energetic
particle event described below. The flare which produced the event was
visible in STEREO-A EUVI/195 imagery at 06/0755 UTC. It appears to have
originated from Old Region 1936 (S15, L=225) which rotated off the
visible disk on 04 Jan. Type II (1383 km/s) and IV radio emissions were
reported at 06/0745 UTC and 06/0653 UTC respectively. SOHO/LASCO
coronagraph imagery is just beginning to arrive and shows an asymmetric
halo CME at 06/1006 UTC. Given its origin, it is not expected to be
geoeffective.

Region 1944 (S09E17, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced only C-class flares.
The largest flare observed was a C7/1F event at 06/0019 UTC. Region 1944
continued its evolution with intermediate spot consolidation and rapid
trailer spot development including a trailer spot delta magnetic
configuration. Region 1937 (S13W77, Dai/beta-gamma) continued to grow as
well with intermediate and trailer spot penumbral growth. Region 1946
(N09E21, Dac/beta) grew rapidly and developed many intermediate spots.
New regions 1947 (N11W76, Cro/beta) and 1948 (N06E54, Hax/alpha) were
numbered. The remaining regions were generally stable or decaying.

5 January


Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 1944 (S08E32,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a few M-class (R1-minor) events during
the period. The largest of these events was a long duration, M4 x-ray
event observed at 04/1946 UTC. Associated with this event were Type IV
and 10cm (550 sfu) radio emissions. As observed on GONG, GOES-15 SXI and
SDO imagery, the bulk of the bright flare material originated from the
extreme western edge of the large leader spot and extended in a westward
direction out ahead of Region 1944. At 04/2148 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery showed an asymmetric, full halo CME. Analysis suggested the CME
may have an Earth-directed component and was moving around 800-1000
km/s. Region 1944 developed a weak delta magnetic configuration and
showed intermediate spot consolidation and trailer spot penumbral
growth.

Region 1936 (S15, L=232) produced a long duration M1 x-ray event
observed off the west limb at 04/2252 UTC. Associated with this event
was a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1937 (S13W65, Dac/beta-gamma-delta)
continued to grow, particularly in the intermediate-trailer portions of
the region. New Region 1946 (N09E28, Dai/beta) emerged on the disk as a
simple bi-polar group and quickly grew. The remaining regions were quiet
and stable.

4 January


Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1944 (S09E45,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced three M flares, the largest an M1/2n at 04/1025
UTC. This region continued to grow and remained complex. Region 1936
(S15W83) decayed to an Hax/alpha type group as it began to rotate off
the west limb. Region 1937 (S11W53, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) re-developed
into a complex, D-type group and produced a C4/Sf event at 03/1835 UTC.
The remaining regions exhibited little change. A filament eruption was
visible in H-alpha movie loops at 03/1639 UTC from the southeast
quadrant, but subsequent STEREO-B coronagraph imagery showed the bulk of
the ejecta directed well south of the ecliptic. Another small eruption
was observed in the southeast near the end of the period but remains to
be observed in coronagraph imagery.

3 January


Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1944 (S10E58,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced an M1/1n at 02/2218 UTC, the largest flare of
the period. A significant increase in area and spot count was observed
as this large region continues to rotate onto the disk. Region 1936s
(S16W68, Dai/beta-gamma) intermediate and trailer spots decayed and the
overall area decreased. Region 1940 (S12W80, Dko/beta) grew and
developed more spots. New Region 1945 (N10E11, Bxo/beta) developed on
the disk as a simple bi-polar group and grew. The remaining regions were
unchanged. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

2 January


Solar activity was high. The largest solar event of the period was an
M9/2b flare at 01/1852 UTC from Region 1936 (S16W56,
Eai/beta-gamma-delta). An associated coronal mass ejection, with a
southwestward trajectory, was first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery at
01/2000 UTC but is not expected to significantly impact the Earth’s
geomagnetic field. Region 1936 showed signs of decay in its intermediate
and follower spot groups. Region 1944 (S07E68, Ekc/beta) produced
several flares in the later half of the period including an M1/Sf at
02/0233 UTC. Region 1944 continued to rotate onto the visible disk and
was the largest sunspot group with an areal coverage of 630 millionths.
Region 1940 (S12W66, Dao/beta) did not produce any significant flaring
but did display growth in its leader spots. The remaining four sunspot
groups showed indications of decay or stability. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs detected in satellite imagery.

1 January


Solar activity was at high levels. The largest solar event was an M6/2n
flare at 31/2158 UTC from Region 1936 (S16W43, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
with an associated 160 sfu Tenflare. Region 1936 showed signs of
intermediate spot growth and consolidation. Region 1940 (S12W51,
Dao/beta) showed leader development and was responsible for multiple low
level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 1938 (S09E02,
Dao/beta) displayed growth in its follower spots and was responsible for
an isolated C-flare early in the reporting period. Region 1941 (S13W29,
Dao/beta-gamma) showed signs of intermediate spot development and
increased magnetic complexity. The other two numbered sunspot groups
showed an overall trend of slight growth. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were detected during the period however, forecasters
are awaiting additional satellite imagery to evaluate the potential
impacts of the M6 flare detected from Region 1936.

31 December


Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a long
duration C8 flare that appeared to originate from a region beyond the
east limb. This event was still in progress as of the writing of this
report. Region 1936 (S16W29, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for
the majority of the other flare activity during the period. It produced
five low-level C-class flares, including a C5 flare at 31/0240 UTC. This
region continued to exhibit spot and penumbral development in its
intermediate portion, consolidation in the leader spots, and maintained
its magnetic delta configuration. Region 1934 (S17W75,
Eac/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its weak delta configuration, but
conclusive analysis of the magnetic complexity is hindered by
foreshortening effects. Region 1938 (S09E01, Hax/alpha) was responsible
for the only other C-class flare of the period, a C2 flare, at
approximately 31/0532 UTC. Three new regions were numbered over night:
Region 1940 (S12W37, Dac/beta), Region 1941 (S13W15, Dso/beta), and
Region 1942 (N10E67, Hsx/alpha).

The leading edge of a coronal mass ejection (CME) can first be seen in
Lasco C2 imagery at approximately 31/0636 UTC, moving off the west limb.
Initial analysis indicated it originated from the area near Region 1934
at approximately 31/0532 UTC and was likely associated with the C2 flare
from Region 1938. Analysis will be conducted to determine exact origin
as well as potential Earth impacts as additional data becomes available.

30 December


Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1936 (S17W15,
Eai/beta-gamma), the largest on the visible disk, exhibited
consolidation in the leader and trailer spots with an overall increase
in area and spot count. It was responsible for the bulk of the flare
activity, including the largest flare, a C5 at 29/1930. Region 1934
(S18W60, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) remained the most magnetically complex
region but was quiet during the period producing only weak B-class
activity. Consolidation was observed in the intermediate and trailer
spots. New Region 1939 (S06W69, Bxo/beta) emerged on the disk as a
simple bi-polar spot group. The remaining regions were quiet and stable.
Flux emergence was noted east and north of Region 1936 and is being
monitored.

29 December


Solar activity reached moderate levels when Region 1936 (S17W00,
Eac/beta-gamma) produced an M3/1n flare at 29/0756 UTC. Region 1934
(N15W47, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) was the most magnetically complex region
but was responsible for only one C2/Sf flare at 28/1315 UTC. Flux
emergence continued in both Regions 1934 and 1936 resulting in a larger
areas and more spots. Flux emergence was also noted near N20E31 and
N06W63 and these regions are being monitored for development. The
remaining regions were stable.

A fast moving CME, first visible at 28/1800 UTC SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery,
was observed on the west limb. The CME was judged too far west to be
geoeffective. Another CME was observed off the southeast limb in C2
imagery around 29/0548 UTC, probably associated with a couple of
filament eruptions near S26E42 between 29/0104-0225 UTC. A preliminary
fit and subsequent WSA-Enlil model run suggests ejecta will merge with a
high speed stream expected after this forecast period. Analysis is
ongoing, however, because the original fit was based on few available
coronagraph images.

28 December


Solar activity remained at low levels with occasional low-level C-class
activity noted from Regions 1934 (S16W33, Esi/beta-gamma-delta) and 1936
(S16E13, Eai/beta-gamma). Region 1934 grew and developed a delta
configuration spot. Region 1936 also maintained a weak mix of
polarities in its trailer portion while the leader spots and penumbra
grew. New Region 1938 (S12E57, Hax/alpha) rotated on the SE limb during
the period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs detected.