Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

16 January


Solar activity was at low levels. The only notable event of the period
was a C1 flare that appeared to originate from a region just beyond the
southeast limb. New Region 1955 (S14E61, Cso/beta) was numbered over
night as it rotated onto the visible disk. Another area of enhanced
plage is rotating on just southeast of 1955, and may be part of the
region that produced the C-flare mentioned above. The remaining regions
on the disk were either stable or decaying. No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over night.

15 January


Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1944 (S12, L=93) produced the
only notable flare of the period, a C3 flare, at 14/1604 UTC. This
region has since rotated around the west limb. Region 1953 (S18W32,
Dao/beta) exhibited slight growth in the leader spots but was fairly
inactive, producing only minor optical subflares during the period. The
remaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs
of slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

14 January


Solar activity was moderate. Region 1944 (S12W85, Dac/beta) produced the
largest solar event of the period, an M1/Sf flare at 13/2151 UTC, as
well as a couple of low-level C-class flares. This region continued to
be the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group on the
visible disk, but also saw the majority of the region rotate onto, and
just past, the western limb. Region 1953 (S17W19, Dao/beta) produced a
C1/Sf at 13/1633 UTC. This region exhibited signs of growth in both its
leader and intermediate spots while nearly doubling in overall areal
growth. The remaining three sunspot groups were unremarkable. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs detected in satellite imagery during the period.

13 January


Solar activity was low. A C1 flare was observed in GOES 15 SXI imagery
near Region 1944 (S12W75, Fkc/beta-gamma). Region 1944 continued to
consolidate and decay, with more moderate decay noted in the trailer
spot area. Region 1946 (N09W76, Dao/beta) underwent a more rapid decay
trend this period. The other regions on the disk remained relatively
stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
during the period.

12 January


Solar activity was low. Region 1944 (S11W62, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced several C-class events, the largest a C6 flare at 11/1310 UTC.
Region 1944 continued a minor decay trend while Region 1946 (N09W63,
Eao/beta-gamma) maintained a more moderate decay trend throughout the
period. New Region 1953 (S18E08, Dro/beta) emerged fairly rapidly on the
disk and was numbered this period. The other regions on the disk were
unremarkable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed this period.

11 January


Solar activity was low. Region 1944 (S10W47, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced the largest event of the period, a C4 flare/Sf at 11/0835 UTC.
Region 1946 (N10W51, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a C1/Sf flare at 10/1849
UTC. Region 1944 exhibited minor decay and consolidation in both its
leader and trailer spot areas, but remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the disk. Region 1946 exhibited minor
decay for the majority of the period. New Region 1951 (S12E05,
Cro/beta) developed rapidly yesterday but showed significant decay in
its leader spots during the past 12 hours and remained unproductive. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

10 January


Solar activity was low. Region 1944 (S09W35, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
continued to show signs of decay, a decrease in areal coverage, and only
produced a single C1 flare at 10/0727 UTC. Region 1946 (N09W39,
Dkc/beta-gamma) exhibited slight growth in the leader and intermediate
spots, yet remained fairly inactive. Region 1950 (N16E38, Cso/beta) was
numbered over night and has already produced a C1 flare at 10/0633 UTC.
The other two numbered regions, Regions 1948 (N06E19, Hsx/alpha) and
1949 (S16E49, Hax/alpha), remained stable and unremarkable. There were
no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed during the
period.

9 January


Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09W22, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) showed signs of decay as it decreased in
areal coverage in the last 12 hours from 1560 millionths to 1120
millionths. It maintained its delta magnetic configuration but showed
consolidation and decay in the intermediate spots while the leader spots
remained largely unchanged. There was significantly less activity from
Region 1944 as it only produced two low-level C-class flares during the
period: a C2/Sf at 08/1259 UTC and a C3/Sn flare at 08/1654 UTC. Region
1946 (N09W26, Dac/beta-gamma) also exhibited signs of decay as it
decreased in coverage from 290 millionths to 240 millions, and showed
decay in the intermediate and leader spots. It was responsible for the
only other flare, a C1/Sf flare, at 09/0216 UTC. Region 1948 (N07E32,
Hsx/alpha) and Region 1949 (S15E62, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and
unremarkable. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
detected in satellite imagery during the period.

8 January


Solar activity was at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09W08, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the largest, most
magnetically complex region on the visible disk. It was responsible for
the largest solar event of the period, an X1/2n flare at 07/1832 UTC,
which was associated with a Type II radio burst (estimated velocity of
1064 km/s) and an 8,300 sfu Tenflare. This region was also responsible
for a few low level C-class flares as well as multiple radio sweeps and
bursts. It exhibited signs of slight decay in its trailer spot group as
well as parts of the intermediate spots, but had slight penumberal
growth in the leader spot. Region 1946 (N09W12, Dkc/beta-gamma) had
slight consolidation in its intermediate and leader spots, but showed
separation between the intermediate and trailer spots. Although this
region was the second largest and second most magnetically complex
region, it remained fairly inactive throughout the period. Region 1947
(N11, L=180), now just beyond the west limb, was the only other flare
producer over the last 24 hours. This region was responsible for a M3/Sf
flare at 08/0347 UTC that was associated with a Type II radio sweep (est
speed 697 km/s), a C7/Sf flare at 07/2233 UTC, and a couple of other
low-level C-class flares. With its current location, any associated CME
is not expected to be Earth-directed. The only other active region on
the visible disk, Region 1948 (N07E46, Hsx/alpha), was stable and
unremarkable.

Once enough imagery was available, in-depth analysis of the coronal mass
ejection associated with the X1/2n flare (mentioned in the previous
discussion) was accomplished. The current Enlil model of this CME
indicates a possible arrival at Earth early on 09 Jan.

7 January


Solar activity reached high levels during the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09E06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest, most complex spot
group on the visible disk and produced the largest flare of the period,
a M7/2b flare at 07/1013 UTC. The flare had an associated 10 cm
Castelli-U radio burst with a peak flux of 409 sfu. This region
continued to exhibit growth, mainly in its leader spots, and produced
several low-level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 1946
(N09E01, Dac/beta-gamma) was the second largest region on the visible
disk and produced the second largest flare of the period, a M1/1n flare
at 07/0353 UTC. It showed signs of consolidation in the trailer spots as
well as separation between the intermediate and trailer spots, and was
responsible for additional low-level C-class flares. The remaining five
spot groups on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs of
decay. Analysis of any coronal mass ejection activity associated with
either the M1 or the M7 flare will be conducted as imagery becomes
available.