Daily Aurora Forecast

6th November


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels (below G1-Minor) on days one and two (06-07 Nov) due to a weak, negative-polarity CH HSS before returning to mostly quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

As a side note, and quite strangely, Nasa models say a CME will arrive today. We have no idea what this information is based on, what strength it will be or where it came from. No other space weather sources have anything down at all. It will probably be a very weak glancing blow, but something to be aware of.

5th November


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

4th November


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

3rd November


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

2nd November


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

1st November


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
What was a really active time in terms of solar activity is now over. There were so many flares and CME’s over the last week it was quite astonishing. Unfortunately not a single one of them was a direct hit on earth, so geomagnetic activity never reached geomagnetic storm levels even once. So, it is back to quiet levels now and watching the sunspots/solar activity for anything earth directed again.

31st October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low (with potential)

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
SWPC have a Kp5 watch active due to a CME that was expected to be produce G1 solar storm. It has began to arrive, but it looks very weak, so we do not think it will get anywhere near Kp5. Speed and density are reasonable, so if the Bz component changes southward it could produce some good aurora shows, but so far, it doesn’t look like doing that. Worth keeping an eye on hourly aurora forecast in case it changes however.

UPDATE:
The Bz is now starting to dip southward (it just briefly reached -5 Bz), so there is now more potential this CME could produce something. Keep an eye on it.

30th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium (with potential for higher)

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
We are believed to be feeling the affects from an X1/2n flare, observed at 0203 UTC on 28 Oct. It is a relatively weak event, and should not cause geomagnetic storming in itself. But as solar activity has been so active recently, there are other events which could boost kp numbers. Nasa models suggest we have a few weak brushes with CME’s scheduled for tonight, while NOAA SWPC have a G1 storm watch active for tomorrow due to the CME associated with the M4 flare that occurred at 1507 UTC on 28 Oct. That CME is believed to be reasonably strong and is likely travelling fast (in the region of 500 km/s), so as the timing of CME’s has been so poor lately, I would not be surprised if this one turned up early (very late tonight). Nasa models actually confirm our thinking, as they have it down as arriving earlier than the SWPC models. As early as midnight tonight +/- 6 hours either side.

29th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
Last night, yet another G1 predicted event went missing, it did eventually turn up this morning, but so far has been weaker than anticipated and barely reached Kp3, but at least it moved us off Kp0! Not sure quite why NOAA SWPC and NASA are getting these so wrong recently. But hey ho. We will keep reporting in case they get one right. Tonight could be a mixed bag, because there have been so many CME’s and flares recently, we could be hit with one quite late, one quite early, or by one not even forecasted. But I don’t think we will see more than Kp3 tonight, the way things have been going lately.

28th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 5 – G1 Minor Solar Storm

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at G1 Storm levels! Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Oslo (Norway), Turku (Finland), Stockholm (Sweden) and Thurso (Scotland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels early on day one (28 Oct) changing to unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals (NOAA Scale G1-Minor) when the ejecta from the 24 October M9 flare and 25 October X-class events arrive.

Quiet to active conditions are expected with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day two (29 Oct) with the arrival of the CME associated with the M3/Sf flare observed on 26 Oct.

Conditions on day three (30 Oct) are expected to return to mostly quiet levels, however there is a chance for passage of ejecta from today’s X1 event. Consequently, the disturbed conditions may extend into day three.