Sighting location: latitude: 40.3849 longitude: -82.7461
Sighting location: latitude: 40.3849 longitude: -82.7461
Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of waning
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed
varied between 360 km/s and 480 km/s to begin the period, but eventually
settle down to consistently average near 380 km/s. Total field was
fairly steady between 6 nT to 7 nT, while the Bz component was mostly
negative, ranging between +4 nT and -7 nT. Phi angle remained mostly
positive (away) throughout the period.
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2209 (S15W63,
Fko/beta-gamma-delta), 2216 (S14E20, Dkc/beta-gamma), and 2217
(S19E60,Cko/beta) continued to produce low-level C-class flaring. The
largest event of the period was a long duration C4 flare at 24/1104 UTC
from Region 2217. In addition to the C4 flare, Region 2217 also produced
a C3 flare at 23/1053 UTC and two C2 flares at 23/1846 UTC and 23/1941
Region 2209 displayed slight decay in its intermediate spots, and only
produced a single C2/Sf flare during the period. Region 2216 had slight
separation between its leader and intermediate spots, had slight growth
in overall areal coverage, but exhibited magnetic simplification, losing
its delta configuration. Spot development was observed in the
intermediate and trailer areas of Region 2217 as it rotated further onto
the visible disk. New Region 2218 (N14E57, Cso/beta) rotated on to the
visible disk and was numbered during the period. An eruptive filament
located just South of Region 2209 was first observed in SDO/AIA 304
imagery at approximately 24/0709 UTC. Lack of LASCO coronagraph imagery
is preventing analysis at this time, but a comprehensive analysis will
be conducted as imagery fills in.
Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced through the
period, likely under weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 360 km/s, but began a
gradual, yet unsteady climb just after the beginning of the new UT day.
Speeds reached a peak of 477 km/s at 23/0351 UTC, and averaged near 410
km/s for the second half of the period. Total field varied slightly
between 5 nT and 9 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +5 nT
and -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) sector.
Solar activity was at low levels. There were three numbered regions on
the visible disk, each contributing to the overall flare count. Region
2209 (S13W51, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) displayed minor growth in its
intermediate spots, just south of the main leader, and maintained its
delta configuration in the large trailer. It produced three C-class
flares, including a C3 flare at 22/1713 UTC, one of largest events of
the period. Region 2216 (S15E34, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) developed a weak
delta configuration in its northern most intermediate spots, while
continuing to exhibit slight separation overall, yet only managed to
produce a single C2 flare at 22/1441 UTC. New Region 2217 (S20E73,
Hax/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk with only one large spot
visible, appearing as an H-type group. This region produced three
C-class flares as well, including a C3 flare at 23/1053 UTC, also one of
largest events of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
Moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an
X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) during the period (23-25 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for
significant flare production.
Solar wind parameters were indicative of coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 610 km/s
before reaching a high speed of 706 km/s at 16/0556 UTC. It began to
decrease slowly just after that peak, ending the period at an average
speed near 450 km/s. After beginning the period near 8 nT, the IMF total
field relaxed and saw an average of near 5 nT to end the period. IMF Bz
component was variable between +5 and -7 nT, while Phi angle was
consistently positive (away) through the period. Conditions have begun
to settle down as a weak transition from CH HSS influence from positive
polarity CH09 transition through weak negative fields before
reconnecting with positive polarity CH10, located near central solar
Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2209
(S14E24, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M5 flare at 16/1748 UTC and
an associated 300 sfu Ten cm radio burst. There did not appear to be a
coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the event in SDO/AIA nor
SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. This region exhibited slight decay of
the smaller leader spot, with slight growth in the large trailer spots.
A C6 flare was observed in GOES-15 SXI imagery at 17/0907 UTC. This
flare appeared to be just beyond the West limb near the approximate
location of old Region 2205 (N15, L=001). LASCO coronagraph imagery will
be analyzed as it becomes available to determine if there was an
associated CME. The rest of the spotted regions continued to be in a
decay phase with the exception of newly numbered Region 2214 (S13E53,
Cro/beta) which emerged on the SE limb.
Reanalysis of the CME associated with the M3/1n flare at 15/2046 UTC
suggests there was likely an Earthward portion of the plasma cloud, with
an expected arrival at Earth near midday on 19 Nov. However, with an
estimated speed of approximately 475 km/s and the solar wind environment
forecast to already be enhanced by the coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS), little impact is expected as the CME will likely be absorbed
in the high speed stream.
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
for the next three days (17-19 Nov) with a chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong or greater) during the period. Region 2209 continues to be
the likely source for significant flaring.
Sighting location: latitude: -37.6207 longitude: 141.9398
Submitted by: Stuart Croft
Large amount of flickering, Strobe type lights in the sky from several directions
Solar wind parameters indicated continued elevated ambient solar wind
conditions. The IMF total field strength averaged near 6 nT while Bz
remained mostly positive, with intermittent negative deviations. Solar
wind speeds began the period near 570 km/s, but decreased to end of
period speeds near 460 km/s. Phi angle remained in a negative (towards)
sector throughout the period.
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2205 (N14W45, Dac/beta-gamma)
exhibited slight decay in its trailer spots, consolidation in the
intermediate and leader spots, and was fairly inactive during the
period. Region 2207 (S09E09, Hax/alpha) was quiescent again this period.
Region 2208 (S12E22, Dsc/beta-gamma) was responsible for the majority of
the flare activity, producing several C-class flares. Although this
region had an overall decrease in areal coverage, it did increase to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 2209 (S15E69, Hsx/alpha) had
additional spots emerge from around the east limb, which are believed to
be the leader spots associated with returning old Region 2192. This
region was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a C8 flare
at 12/0607 UTC. Regions 2210 (N05E39, Axx/alpha) and 2211 (N08W33,
Bx0/beta) were numbered during the period, but were stable and
unremarkable. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period.
Solar activity is expected to increase, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely for days one through three (13-15 Nov).
The remainder of Region 2209 is expected to rotate on to the visible
disk, Region 2208 is expected to become more active, and the continued
presence of Region 2205 all combine to keep a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong or greater) flare activity for day one (13 Nov), increasing
to a chance on days two and three (14-15 Nov).