Archives for Tony

4th December


The solar wind environment at ACE was modestly enhanced. Wind speed
hovered near 500 km/s. Phi was variable but predominantly negative. Bt
ranged from around 7 to 11 nT. Bz was mostly neutral or positive, with
-6 nT representing the maximum southern excursion.

4th December


Solar activity increased to moderate levels when Region 2222 (S19W37,
Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1/1n flare at 04/0810 UTC followed by a C5
flare from the same region at 04/0856 UTC. The intermediate and
trailing portions of Region 2222 decayed during the period. New flux
emergence was noted near N09W05 and is being monitored. The remaining
regions were stable or decaying. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
noted during the past 24 hours. However a small filament appeared to
erupt between 04/0200-0600 UTC south of Region 2225, based on movie
loops of GONG H-Alpha and SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Further analysis will be
accomplished once coronagraph imagery has been received.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for another
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (04 -
06 Dec), particularly from Region 2222.

2nd December


Wind speed and temperature at the ACE spacecraft began to climb in the
early part of the period, while density fell. Wind speed reached 640
km/s at 02/0255 UTC. Phi was mostly negative through the period. Bz
dipped as low as -10 nT at 01/2143 UTC then gradually returned to
neutral conditions as Bt declined. Wind speed dropped after 02/0300
UTC, ending near 500 km/s. The observations were consistent with the
presence of a high speed solar wind stream, although the observed
polarity was opposite of the hole that was expected, suggesting the
southern polar coronal hole is connected instead.

2nd December


Solar activity declined to low levels. Region 2217 (S16W51,
Dai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sn at
02/0805 UTC. Region 2217 grew over the past 24 hours and flux emergence
was observed in the intermediate portion of the region. Region 2222
(S19W10, Eki/beta-gamma) produced three low-level C-class events,
including a C2/Sf at 02/0429 UTC, and remained the largest region on the
visible disk. Its leader and intermediate spots grew.

No Earth-directed CMEs were noted during the past 24 hours.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance
for another M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (02 -
04 Dec), particularly from Region 2222 or 2217.

1st December


Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft exhibited a gradual increasing
trend from about 385 km/s to near 460 km/s at period’s end. The IMF
total field (Bt) generally ranged from 8-11 nT. The Bz component was
variable between +9 to -8 nT through about 30/2100 UTC when the field
remained mostly north to about +5 nT. The Phi angle remained in a
predominately negative (towards) orientation. Low energy particles
detected by the EPAM instrument began rising slowly during the past 24
hours, perhaps signaling the approach of a co-rotating interaction
region in advance of an anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS).

1st December


Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an M1/1n flare at
01/0641 UTC from Region 2222 (S21E09, Eki/beta-gamma). A weak Tenflare
of 180 sfu accompanied this event. Region 2222 remains the largest
region on the visible disk and indicated little change during the
period.

Numerous low-level C-class flares were also observed from Regions 2216
(S14W70, Eki/beta-gamma), 2217 (S17W32, Dao/beta-gamma), 2219 (N03W76,
Cao/beta-gamma) and 2221 (N03E12, Cao/beta). Both Regions 2219 and 2221
exhibited some area decay and spot loss while the remaining regions were
little changed. New Region 2226 (S19W16, Cao/beta) emerged on the disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a continued chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (01 – 03
Dec).

28th November


Solar wind parameters indicated a nominal solar environment. Total
field ranged from 4 nT to 11 nT while the Bz component was variable
between +10 nT and -7 nT. Wind speed averaged about 360 km/s with a
peak of 430 km/s at 27/1938 UTC. The phi angle was in a predominately
negative (towards) sector with some positive (away) variability between
27/1200-1720 UTC.

28th November


Solar activity was at low levels through the period with Region 2222
(S20E50, Ehc/beta-gamma) producing the majority of the C-class activity.
This region produced the largest flare of the period; a C7/Sf flare at
28/0040 UTC. Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 2222 as
it continued to rotate onto the disk.

Slight elongation was noted in Region 2219 (N04W28, Eai/beta-gamma).
Region 2221 (N04E49, Dac/beta-gamma) indicated overall growth in area,
particularly in its intermediate spots, and developed some mixed
magnetic polarity within the leader portion of the group. New Region
2224 (S24E35, Bxo/beta) developed on the disk this period. The
remaining regions were stable and indicated little change.

Other activity consisted of a C2 x-ray event recorded at 28/0422 UTC.
The event was associated with a filament eruption observed in GONG and
SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery between 28/0415-0500 UTC. The 8 degree long
filament was centered near S18E42, to the NW of Regions 2222 and 2224,
and was observed lifting off the SE portion of the disk. No coronagraph
data was available at the time of this report to determine if there was
an associated CME. Further analysis is ongoing.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (28-30
Nov), particularly from Regions 2219, 2221 and 2222. This is based on
these three region’s magnetic complexity and steady growth.

26th November


The anticipated sector change and high speed stream has not materialized
yet. Solar wind was nominal at the ACE spacecraft, with speeds in the
mid 300 km/s range. Phi remained mostly positive and Bt was at or below
6 nT. Bz was mostly negative, dipping as low as -5 nT.

26th November


Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C2/Sn at 26/0617 UTC from Region 2217 (S20E36, Eai/beta-gamma),
which decayed in the intermediate and trailer portions. The only region
to exhibit any significant growth was Region 2219 (N05W08, Dri/beta),
which was responsible for a C1/Sf flare at 26/0034 UTC. The remaining
regions were stable or decaying. A new region near N03E78 is being
monitored and appears to have been responsible for a C1 flare at 25/2045
UTC.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels. A chance remains for an
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), during the period (26-28 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2217 appear to be the most likely sources for any
significant flare production.