Archives for Tony

20th December


Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2242
(S18W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1/3b flare at 20/0028 UTC.
Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep (900 km/s), 2300
sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed off the SW
limb. We are currently waiting on further SOHO/LASCO coronagraph
imagery to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to the CME.

Penumbral area within the intermediate area of Region 2242 appeared to
be separating which separated the delta regions within the group.
Region 2241 (S10W13, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was relatively stable and
quiet over the period, however it retains a transverse delta within its
trailing spots. Flux emergence and growth was observed in new Region
2244 (S05E45, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (20-22 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

18th December


The solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, continued to reflect normal
ambient background levels. Solar wind speeds were steady near 390 km/s,
the total field fluctuated slightly between 5 nT and 7 nT, and the Bz
component ranged between +/- 7 nT. Phi angle remained unchanged in a
primarily positive (away) orientation for most of the period.

18th December


Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. Region 2241
(S10E11, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period,
an M1/1n flare at 17/1901 UTC, as well as a couple of high level C-class
flares. This region continued to show growth and maintained its delta
magnetic configuration across an east-west polarity inversion line
during the period. Region 2242 (S18W09, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained
one of the most active regions, also producing multiple C-class events,
the largest being a C7/Sf event at 17/2126 UTC. It too, continued to
exhibit growth in its overall areal coverage and maintained its delta
magnetic configuration. The remaining regions on the visible disk
remained stable and mostly inactive. No Earth directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (18-20 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic
structures. There is also a chance for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.

13th December


Solar activity reached moderate levels today as a region just rotating
around the SE limb near S05 produced an impulsive M1 flare at 13/0520
UTC. Multiple C-class flaring was also observed originating from
Regions 2227 (S04W65, Hsx/alpha), 2234 (N04W20, Dao/beta), 2236 (N30E55,
Dao/beta), and 2237 (S15E48, Eso/beta). Slight growth was observed in
the intermediate area of Region 2230 (S15W25, Dac/beta) and new flux
emergence was observed around the leader and trailing spots of Region
2237. The rest of the numbered regions were either stable or in decay.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for
further M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) activity for the forecast period
(13-15 Dec).

12th December


Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a solar sector boundary
crossing (SSBC) followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds began the period
near 400 km/s with total field measurements around 5 nT. Density was
increasing through the first half of the period to near 20 p/cc. At
approximately 11/2227 UTC, phi angle switched into a positive (away)
sector, followed by a drop in density and an increase in total field,
temperature, and solar wind speed. Total field reached a maximum of 11
nT at 12/0122 UTC and remained enhanced through the end of the period.
The Bz component reached a maximum of -10 nT at 12/1040 UTC. Solar wind
speed continued to increase with end of period values near 500 km/s.

12th December


Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were
produced by Regions 2230 (S15W12, Dac/beta-gamma), 2234 (N04W05,
Dai/beta-gamma), and 2235 (S08E42, Hax/alpha). Slight growth was
observed in the intermediate area of both Regions 2230 and 2234. New
Region 2237 (S14E58, Dao/beta) was numbered during the period.

An approximate 30 degree filament eruption centered near N20 in the NE
quadrant was observed beginning at 12/0258 UTC. A long duration C1
flare was observed at 12/0457 UTC associated with this event. An
associated coronal mass ejection was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
at 12/0548 UTC off the NE limb. Analysis of this event is in progress
as further imagery becomes available.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flare for the forecast period (12-14
Dec). Regions 2230 and 2234 are the most likely sources for any
significant flare activity.

10th December


The southern pole coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) remained
geoeffective although it was beginning to show signs of decay. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft began the period in the low 500 km/s
range and ended near 450 km/s. Phi began the period in the negative
sector, but was variable after 09/1800 UTC. Bt reached 8 nT while Bz
dipped to -5 nT.

10th December


.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity continued at low levels (below R1-minor). Region 2230
(S15E15, Dai/beta-gamma) continued to grow and produced most of the
C-class activity during the period. The largest event from this region
was an impulsive C6 flare at 09/1528 UTC. There was some flux emergence
in the northern portion of Region 2227 (S03W27, Cao/beta). New flux
emergence was also noted near N04E24 and is being monitored for possible
numbering. Another region, probably the return of old Region 2209, was
rotating onto the visible disk near S08E70 and had produced a C1 flare
at 10/0924 UTC. A CME was observed erupting from the west limb around
09/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, but was not Earth-directed. No
other significant eruptions were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. A slight chance for
an M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flare is possible during the period
(10-12 Dec). Region 2230 and the return of old Region 2209 (S15,L=248),
which has starting making the way around east limb, on day one (10 Dec)
will be the most likely sources for any significant activity.

6th December


The solar wind environment at the ACE satellite indicated fairly nominal
conditions through about 06/0320 UTC. Wind speeds averaged about 450
km/s, IMF total field (Bt) ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component did
not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was highly variable between
a negative (towards) and a positive (away) sector. After 05/0320 UTC,
phi rotated to a steady negative sector, wind speeds gradually increased
to near 475 km/s, Bt sharply increased to near 20 nT and Bz varied
between +16 nT to -6 nT. EPAM low energy particles also showed a gradual
increase indicating the possible arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region in advance of an anticipated negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).

6th December


.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the period. Region 2222
(S20W57, Cki/beta-gamma) produced an M1 flare at 05/1225 UTC. The region
also produced a few low-level C-class flares. As Region 2222 approached
the west limb, it continued to exhibit decay in its intermediate and
trailer spots, but maintained weak magnetic polarity mixing.

New Regions 2229 (S23E28, Bxo/beta) and 2230 (S15E62, Hax/alpha) were
numbered this period. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. No
CMEs were detected over the past 24 hours.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for another
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare during the period (06-08 Dec),
particularly from Region 2222.