Archives for Tony

Aurora over Drumnadrochit


[twitchermap]

Submitted by: Graham McConville + Allan Crossland

Report:

Blurry and no tripod. Our first aurora photographs.

Drumnadrochit aurora


[twitchermap]

Submitted by: Allan Crossland + Graham McConville

Report:

Aurora over Drumnadrochit 8/10/13

High chance of earth directed solar flare



Quite a high chance of Solar Flare directly facing Earth

Solar flare northern lights

Sunspot AR1861 is pointing directly at Earth and crackling with C-class solar flares. Bigger eruptions could be in the offing. The sunspot has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that could erupt at any time. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on Oct. 12th.

1861 could spark auroras

12th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
Solar winds are expected to continue at nominal levels until late on Oct 14 when a trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is expected to cause an enhancement to solar wind speed.

11th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavik (Iceland).

Comments:
A recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to increase solar wind speed and IMF parameters beginning on Oct 11 and continuing through Oct 12.

10th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavik (Iceland).

Comments:
CME event over, back to nominal levels. A CH HSS should become geoeffective tomorrow so it’s not so bad.

2 CME’s?



Are we in the middle of a 2 CME event?

coronalmassejection

It is not clear if the current geomagnetic activity is from an scheduled CME (which arrived very early) or from an unknown CME, which means the scheduled CME is still due to arrive.

From the SWPC:
CME effects are expected to persist during Oct 9 then gradually subside. Analysis is inconclusive as to whether the current effects are from the CME associated with the Oct 6 filament eruption or a different, undetected CME. If they are separate events, then the CME from the filament eruption on Oct 6 is expected to arrive late on Oct 9. Solar wind conditions are expected to be influenced beginning on Oct 11 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).

9th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 4 – High

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at high levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Trondheim (Norway), Vaasa (Finland), Sundsvall (Sweden) and Faeroe Islands.

Comments:
The CME hit early, it was a great show last night. The solar wind is still flowing fast around 570 km/s, and is still reaching levels of kp4+, but it will start weakening soon. There might be enough left in it to produce nice shows early tonight. But there is also supposed to be another CME impact tonight at some point, if this happens, keep an eye on the real time forecast, because it should spark auroras again!

8th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Possible CME affects 9th October


Nominal solar wind conditions are expected until late on Oct. 9, but then an increase in wind speed, IMF Bt, and IMF Bz variability are expected late on Oct. 9 due to the arrival of the CME from yesterday’s filament eruption. CME effects are expected to persist during the first half of Oct. 10, then gradually subside.