Archives for Tony

15th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
At the moment we are relying on CH HSS stream, it is showing signs of weakening, but the affects from the 13th Oct M1.7 flare could arrive as early as tonight, so this could all change in a moments notice. Enhanced solar wind speed and IMF variability are expected to persist for the next three days (15-17 Oct) with a combination of CH HSS and CME effects.

15th October


 

Solar wind parameters were consistent with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Speeds remained fairly steady near 450 km/s the first half of the period while the IMF total field ranged between 13 and 3 nT. A subsequent increase in wind speed, density, and temperature at approximately 15/0110 UTC, followed by a slight decrease in temp and density, indicate the possible arrival of the anticipated 11 Oct CME. With only a slight disruption in the magnetic field, it appears to have been a weak CME with only minor impacts observed.

Aurora


[twitchermap]

Submitted by: Oskar

Report:

Auroras coverd half the sky, bands of light stretching from east to west with alot of glow and low active bands to the north.

14th October


Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed was initially steady, but began to increase to end-of-period values near 475 km/s after 14/0300 UTC. The total field strength ranged from 2 nT to 12 nT while the Bz component ranged from +8 nT to -9 nT throughout the period. The phi angle transitioned from a negative (toward) sector to a positive (away) sector around 14/0700 UTC.

14th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
CH HSS is flowing well and a couple of CME’s are due to arrive in the next 24 hours. It is difficult to get a good prediction on this occasion with so many events overlapping. It could be awesome, or it could be average. If you use our aurora alerts we will text you when it is Kp4+, otherwise monitor the forecast page for any activity as and when it happens.

CME/Flare/CH HSS Inbound!



Triple header

Solar flare northern lights

This morning (13th Oct) sunspot 1865 produced an M1.7 solar flare and a weak CME. We have seen reports on it all day but we wanted to wait until there was more analysis on it (which there now is).

As it was an earth facing sunspot, it will be pretty much be a direct hit, or quite close to one anyway. So even though it was only a modest flare and weak CME it is highly possible to cause geomagnetic storming.

Now there is more good news. Shortly before the flare and CME are due to arrive (15th/16th more exact time will follow on the forecast page), A CH HSS will also have become geoffective.

Take a look yourself here on the WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction tool : http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/

The 3 things hitting earth (the green dot) in that image are in this order First the CH HSS, then the flare, then the CME cloud.

Early predictions suggest G1 storm (Kp5) on the 15th.

When these 3 events are due to arrive, they will be staggered, maybe a couple hours between them, so it is going to be a long night. So have your coffee ready.

Remember the last CME that arrived 8th October was meant to be weak also and that reached Kp6. This CME does look pretty faint though, so it is the flare that will arrive before it that looks like it will deliver the most activity. With all three elements combined who knows what will happen. There is no accurate prediction for that.

13th October


Solar wind speeds continued at nominal levels throughout the period. Phi angle transitioned from positive (away) to a negative (towards) sector near the beginning of the period. Density began the period slightly elevated, but retreated to background levels by the end. Solar wind speeds remained nominal throughout the period, reaching a high of 423 km/s and ended the period steady near 350 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT and 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +4 nT and -5 nT.

13th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain consistent with nominal background conditions through 14 Oct. On 15 Oct, enhanced solar wind speeds are expected with the arrival of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream coupled with the possible weak effects from a CME observed late on 11 Oct.

Aurora


[twitchermap]

Submitted by: Tony | Amazing Auroras

Report:

Auroras…

Aurora


[twitchermap]

Submitted by: Tony | Amazing Auroras

Report:

Cloudy night, but caught a small show in between clouds.