Archives for Tony

9th Jan


Solar activity remained low. Region 2257 (N07W29, Dki/beta) produced the
largest event of the period, a C9/1n at 09/0817 UTC. Newly numbered
active group near N09E11 was numbered as Region 2260 as a Dao/beta
group. All other active regions were largely inactive and unremarkable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong) mainly from Regions 2253, 2257, and 2259 during the
next three days (09-11 Jan).

Aurora


[twitchermap]

Submitted by: Andrew baird

Report:

Strong aurora, purple beams over green arc and curtains

4th January


Solar activity returned to low levels. By 04/0800 UTC, Region 2253
(Ekc/beta-gamma) had produced six C flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
04/0452 UTC. The region grew slightly and exhibited some shearing but
appears to have lost the delta configuration. The remaining regions were
mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in the available
imagery.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for another M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare from Region 2253 during the next three
days (04-06 Jan) and a slight chance for an X-class (R3, Strong) flare.

1st January


Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds
ranged from 435 km/s to 631 km/s. Total field was between 2 nT and 7 nT
while the Bz component varied between -6 nT and +4 nT. Phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards) with minor deflections into a positive
(away) sector.

1st January


Solar activity continued at low levels with Region 2253 (S07E41,
Dkc/beta-gamma) contributing to the majority of the low level C-class
flaring. The largest, a pair of C2/Sf flares, were observed at 01/0507
UTC and 01/0730 UTC from Region 2253. Region 2251 (S13W03,
Dao/beta-gamma) was also responsible for an isolated C1 flare at 31/1216
UTC. Region 2253 continued to exhibit moderate growth and
consolidation. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in
decay.

At approximately 31/1454 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in
SDO/AIA 304 imagery near N20 in the central region. At 31/1700 UTC,
faint ejecta could be seen exiting the NW region in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery. Further analysis is in progress to determine if there is a
geoeffective component.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (01-03 Jan).

31st December


Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from 675 km/s to near
500 km/s over the period. Bt ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT while Bz was
variable and dipped as low as -5 nT. Phi angle was predominately
negative with a few short periods in a positive sector. These
observations suggest the waning of a high speed solar wind stream from
the southern crown coronal hole.

31st December


Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 2250 (N10W87, Hrx/alpha),
2251 (S14E12, Dai/beta) and 2253 (S07E55, Eac/beta-gamma) all produced
low level C-class flares. The other regions on the disk were relatively
quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (31 Dec – 02
Jan).

30th December


Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased over the period from
around 430 km/s to near 755 km/s over the period. Bt reached a maximum
of 15 nT while Bz dipped as low as -10 nT. Bt began to decrease and Bz
became more neutral toward the end of the period. These observations
suggest the presence of a high speed solar wind stream.

30th December


Solar activity remained at low levels, with a lone C2/Sf flare from
Region 2251 (S09E25, Dac/beta-gamma). The region showed penumbral
development in its intermediate and trailer spots. The other regions on
the disk were relatively quiet and stable. No CMEs were observed today
on the Sun-Earth line.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (30 Dec – 01
Jan).

20th December


Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels through the period.
There are currently no signs of the impending arrival of the 17 Dec CME
as of the time of this report. Solar wind speeds ranged from 323 km/s
to 413 km/s with the total field relatively steady near 6 nT. The Bz
component was variable between +/- 6 nT, while the phi angle was
oriented in a positive (away) sector.