Archives for Tony

17th October


Solar activity was moderate. An impulsive M4 flare occurred in the
vicinity of newly numbered Region 2192 (S16E66, Cao/beta) at 16/1303
UTC. This region was also responsible for a handful of C-class events
including a C6 flare at 17/0500 UTC. The remaining regions on the
visible disk were either stable or decaying.

One, or possibly more, CMEs were evident in a SOHO/LASCO image at
17/1012 UTC. There were no obvious sources on the Earth-facing side, so
it is believed these are far-side events. Analysis will continue as
imagery is received.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low; more C-class events are expected
with a chance of another M-class (R1-minor) radio blackout event.

16th October


Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained in the low to mid 400
km/s range. Phi was negative; Bz never dipped below -5 nT while Bt
never rose above 8 nT.

16th October


Solar activity was low. A C7 flare occurred from the southeast limb at
16/0737 UTC. A Type IV radio sweep was reported at 16/0722 UTC and some
material could be seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery surging south of the flare
location. A C6 flare followed at 16/0923 UTC from the same area, likely
the vicinity of Old Regions 2172 (S12, L=241) and 2173 (S14, L=250).
Coronagraph imagery is not yet available for this event.

The seven numbered regions on the visible disk were either stable or
decaying. Regions 2185 (S15W85) and 2188 (N18W56) decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed CMEs were noted.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next three days (16-18
Oct) as old Regions 2172 and 2173 return. C-class events are expected,
with a slight chance of another M-class (R1-minor) radio blackout event.

15th October


The solar wind environment remained disturbed for the first half of the
period in response to a glancing blow passage of a CME observed on 10
October, possible mixed with effects from a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Bt reached 16 nT while Bz dipped as low as -12 nT
between 14/1200-15/0000 UTC, fluctuating between periods of northward
and southward orientation. After 00Z, Bt began to decrease and Bz
became predominantly positive. Solar wind speed was initially between
400-450 km/s and increased to a maximum of 580 km/s at 15/0040 UTC.
This increase was coincident with a modest rise in temperature and a
primarily negative Phi orientation.

15th October


Solar activity reached moderate levels with impulsive M1 flare (R1 radio
blackout) at 14/1837 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare (1300
sfu), but no other CME related radio signatures. The flare appeared to
have originated beyond the east limb in the vicinity of Old Regions 2172
and 2173. These regions are expected to return over the next 24 hours.

A CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery,
first visible at 13/1900 UTC. Analysis using C3 imagery suggested a
plane-of-sky speed near 800 km/s for the ejecta. Its origin beyond the
east limb makes interaction with Earth unlikely.

A long duration M-class event followed shortly after from the same
vicinity. It began at 14/1907 UTC and had reached a peak of M2 by
14/2121 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare of 180 sfu.

Two new regions were numbered overnight, Region 2090 (N23E53, Bxo/beta)
and 2191 (S13E48, Bxo/beta) but otherwise unremarkable. The remaining
regions on the disk were stable.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next three days (15-17
Oct) as old Regions 2172 and 2173 return. C-class events will be
likely, with a slight but increasing chance of an M-class (R1-minor
radio blackout) event.

14th October


Solar wind conditions at the ACE spacecraft suggested tine influence of
a modest coronal hole high speed stream which became geoeffective early
in the period yesterday. Solar wind speed increased from around 350
km/s to the low 400 km/s range. Temperature increased slightly as well.
The solar sector remained negative while Bt climbed to 12 nT by 14/0950
UTC and Bz dipped as low as -6 nT early in the period, but was
predominantly positive after 13/2143 UTC.

14th October


Solar activity was very low. The four spotted groups on the visible
solar disk were stable. Regions 2187 (S10E49, Eao/beta) and 2186
(S21W13, Hsx/alpha) were the largest. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed during the period, however a 10 degree filament eruption
occurred between 14/0844-0934 UTC, centered at S22W41. Loops of GONG
H-alpha imagery and SDO/AIA 304 imagery suggest the ejecta was directed
southward. Further analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery is
received.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (14-16
Oct).

13th October


Solar wind conditions depicted nominal conditions throughout the period.
Solar wind varied between a low of near 300 km/s to a high of about 340
km/s. Total field (Bt) measurements varied between 3-9 nT while the Bz
component did not vary much beyond +5 to -2 nT. Phi measurements
indicated a negative (towards) solar sector orientation through about
13/0930 UTC when the phi angle rotated to a more positive (away) sector.

13th October


Solar activity declined to very low levels with a few B-class X-ray
events recorded. Region 2187 (S10E60, Eso/beta) continues to rotate onto
the disk and was stable. Region 2186 (S10W00, Cso/beta) was also stable
and unremarkable during the period. New flux emergence was observed near
N18W06.

At about 13/2330 UTC, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed surging on or behind
the SW limb near S12, in the vicinity of old Region 2182 (S15, L=123).
LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME off the WSW limb, first observed at
13/0000 UTC. Due to the extreme western location of this event, no Earth
impact is expected from the resultant CME.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) activity for the next three days (13-15 Oct).

12th October


Solar wind conditions were fairly nominal during the period. Total field
(Bt) measurements ranged from an early high of 8 nT and gradually
decreased to a reading of about 4 nT late in the period. IMF Bz was
mostly positive while solar wind speeds were stable between 325-360
km/s. Phi measurements indicated a solar sector boundary (SSB) crossing
from a positive (away) sector to a negative (towards) sector at 11/1118
UTC and remained in a negative orientation through the summary period.