Archives for Tony

24th October


Solar activity was at low to moderate levels this period. Region 2192
(S12W14, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M4-flare at 24/0748
UTC as well as multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 2192 persists as the largest and most productive region on the
visible disk although a minor decay trend was observed as separation
between the leader and follower spot areas increased slightly this
period. New Regions 2196 (S04E72, Axx/alpha) and 2197 (S12E69,
Axx/alpha) were numbered this period but were otherwise unremarkable.
The other regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

.Forecast…
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is expected with a
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) over the next three days (24-26 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source or further activity.

22nd October


Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflected the waning influence of a
high speed solar wind stream. Speed declined through the period,
beginning near 650 km/s and ending near 450 km/s. Phi remained positive.
Bt was at or below 7 nT and Bz never dipped below -6 nT. Density began
a slow rise after 22/0000 UTC while temperature began to decline.

22nd October


Region 2192 (S15E19, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8 (R2, moderate)
flare at 22/0159 UTC, with no optical counterpart reported, bringing
solar activity to high levels for the period. The event was accompanied
by a Tenflare (590 sfu) and a Type IV radio sweep. Region 2192 also
produced two impulsive M-flares (M1 at 21/1338 UTC and M2/Sf at 22/0517
UTC). The M1 event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (est
speed 876 km/s) at 21/1342 UTC. Another Type II signature was reported
at 21/1249 UTC (est speed 662 km/s). The region continued to grow,
reaching 2410 micro-hemispheres, with intermediate spot development and
leader-trailer separation evident on SDO/HMI intensitygram loops.

The most recently received SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery revealed
three very faint CMEs, first visible at 21/1248, 21/1724 and 21/2128
UTC. None were observed in C3 imagery, but appeared to be associated
with narrow plumes of material ejected from the southern portion of
Region 2192, evident in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. Another plume was noted
beginning at 22/0239 UTC, but corresponding coronagraph imagery has not
yet been received. In each case, the material is ejected to the south.
Similar to the analysis of yesterday’s CME, these faint, slow events are
not thought to pose a significant threat. Further analysis will be
conducted as imagery is received.

Elsewhere on the disk, both Regions 2187 (S08W60, Cso/beta) and 2194
(S13E51, Cso/beta) were stable, while new intermediate spots emerged in
Region 2193 (N04W25, Dao/beta).

Finally, a new region has begun to rotate on in the northeast quadrant
of the disk and is being evaluated.

.Forecast…
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate to high levels. There is a
slight but persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over
the next three days (22-24 Oct) from this same region.

21st October


Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft reflected the influence of
a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed
began around 500 km/s and increased to near 600 km/s by 21/0500 UTC and
to almost 700 km/s by the end of the period. Phi remained positive. Bt
was at or below 10 nT while Bz fluctuated between 7 and -9 nT in the
first half of the period, becoming mostly positive or neutral after
21/0000 UTC.

21st October


Solar activity was moderate. Region 2192 (S15E26,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced four M-class(NOAA Scale R1, minor)
flares and several C-class events over the past 24 hours. The largest
flare was an M4/2n event at 20/1637 UTC. Region 2192 continued to grow,
reaching approximately 2400 micro-hemispheres by 21/0137 UTC.

New Region 2194 (S14E64, Dao/beta) rotated onto the visible disk and was
numbered. The remaining two spotted regions were stable or decaying.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate levels. There is a slight but
persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over the next
three days (21-23 Oct) from this same region.

20th October


Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) at around 20/1800 UTC. Solar
wind speeds were steady between 375-475 km/s through 20/0800 UTC when
wind speeds increased to near 550 km/s. IMF total field values were
steady between 5-11 nT and Bz varied between +8 nT and -8 nT. The phi
angle was steady in a positive (away) solar sector throughout the
period.

20th October


Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 2192 (S13E36,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M3/1n flare at 20/0911 UTC
which was the largest event of the period. In addition, Region 2192
produced a C9/1f flare at 20/0602 UTC and multiple mid-level C-class
flares throughout the period. Region 2192 persists as the most
productive and threatening region on the visible disk and continued to
develop throughout the period. Region 2193 (N05E02, Dro/beta) exhibited
minor growth this period while the other regions on the visible disk
were relatively stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed this period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Oct) with Region
2192 being the likely source of solar activity.

18th October


Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind
regime. Solar wind speeds were steady in the 400-500 km/s range. IMF
total field values reached 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward
component of -7 nT. The phi angle was variable between negative
(toward) and positive (away) solar sectors throughout the period,
suggesting multiple solar sector boundary crossings (SSBCs).

18th October


Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/Sf
flare from Region 2192 (S15E63, Eki/beta-gamma) at 18/0758 UTC. Region
2192 also produced a multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the
period and appeared to be increasing in both size and magnetic
complexity as it continues to rotate into full view. The other regions
on the visible disk were stable. A filament eruption (approx 8 degree
extent) centered near N15W10 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
18/0740-0938 UTC. No coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this writing to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with either the M-flare or the filament eruption occurred.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source.

17th October


The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal. Wind
speed remained in the low to mid 400 km/s range. Phi was negative, Bt
was at or below 7 nT and Bz never dipped below -6 nT.