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Archives for Tony

11th November

Early solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of the 07
Nov CME combined with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.
The IMF total field strength began the period near 12 nT, then slowly
decreased to average near 10 nT for the majority of the period. The Bz
component was mostly positive, seeing isolated southern deviations as
low as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds remained near 500 km/s, dropping for a
brief period to average near 450 km/s. Phi angle was mostly oriented in
a negative (towards) sector.

11th November

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2205 (N15W15,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) again produced the largest flare of the period, a
C6 flare at 11/1122 UTC. This region exhibited slight growth in its
intermediate spots, but decreased in overall areal coverage. New region
2208 (S12E50, Cao/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate spots, near
the trailer spot area. This spot group has begun to show signs of
activity, producing several optical flares during the period. The rest
of the spotted regions were relatively stable over the period. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast…
As Region 2205 continues to transit the visible solar disk, solar
activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate conditions
(R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) on day one (11 Nov). Increasing flare activity
with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class (R3 or greater)
flare activity for days two and three (12-13 Nov) is expected. Further
significant flare activity is possible as old Region 2192 (S12, L=263)
is expected to rotate around the east limb late on day one (11 Nov), and
is expected to be the likely source of increased solar activity.

Aurora Australis – Mt Barrow, Tasmania

Sighting location: latitude: -41.378 longitude: 147.4228

Submitted by: Scott Godwin

Report:

Pink, red and green beams visible in camera, but not to naked eye. Display lasted about 15-30 minutes between 9:30 and 10:30 pm.

29th October

The solar wind environment at ACE remained slightly enhanced during the
period. Solar winds averaged near 400 km/s for most of the period,
before decreasing to the mid to upper 300s by the end. Bt displayed a
very slow and steady decrease from 7 nT to end-of-period values near 5
nT. Bz fluctuated between +/- 6 nT throughout much of the period. Phi
remained positive through most of the period, aside from an isolated
rotation into a negative sector just before 29/0800 UTC for
approximately 30 minutes.

29th October

Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. Region 2192
(S12W78, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced three M-class (R1-minor) flares
during the period, including an M1/Sf at 28/1406 UTC, an M1/Sf at
29/0820 UTC, and an M1 at 29/1001 UTC. As with the vast majority of the
previous flare activity, no significant radio signatures were noted, and
none of the events appeared to produce significant Earth-directed
eruptions.

Due to Region 2192′s location, just rotating off the visible disk,
accurate areal coverage and magnetic structure are difficult to
determine. However, based on the imagery available as it transits the
limb, it looked to be mostly unchanged and still very capable of
producing M- (R1/R2- Minor-Moderate) and X- (R3-Strong) class flares.

Regions 2197 (S13E08, Dso/beta) and 2198 (S13W25, Dso/beta) both
exhibited signs of growth, while the other regions on the visible disk
were either stable or in decay.

27th October

Solar wind parameters indicated a continued nominal solar wind
environment. Solar wind speeds were steady near 400 km/s, IMF total
field values were steady near 7 nT, and Bz ranged between +6 nT and -7
nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) solar sector
throughout the period.

27th October

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2192 (S12W52,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of R2 (Moderate) flares (M7 at
27/0034 UTC and M6 at 27/1009 UTC) as well as six R1 (Minor) flares this
period. Region 2192 began to show signs of minor penumbral decay and
umbral consolidation but persists as the most productive and threatening
region on the solar disk. The other regions on the visible disk were
either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed this period.

.Forecast…
Continued M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is expected
and X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity is likely over the next three
days (27-29 Oct) due to Region 2192′s persistent activity.

25th October

Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial
values near 440-470 km/s to end-of-period values near 400 km/s. IMF
total field values were steady near 4-6 nT and Bz reached a maximum
southward component of -5 nT, and was predominately southward throughout
the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) sector
throughout most of the period but began to transition to a negative
(toward) sector after 25/0900 UTC, likely marking the end of CH HSS
effects.

25th October

Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 2192 (S12W27,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long duration X3/3f flare at 24/2141
UTC as well as a long duration C9 flare at 25/0808 UTC, which were the
largest events of the period. Region 2192 exhibited penumbral growth in
its leader spot area with umbral consolidation in its trailer spot area,
and persists as the most threatening region on the visible disk. Minor
growth was observed in the trailer spot area of Region 2195 (N08E40,
Dso/beta) and the other regions on the disk were either stable or in
decay. A narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X3
flare was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/2148 UTC but
was directed well south of the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed this period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) with
a chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three
days (25-27 Oct) with Region 2192 being the likely source.

24th October

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind speeds were relatively steady between 400-500 km/s. IMF
total field values ranged between 2-7 nT and Bz was predominately
southward throughout the period, reaching a maximum southward component
of -5 nT mid-period. The phi angle was stable in a positive (away)
sector throughout the period.