Solar activity was high (NOAA Scale R3-Strong) for the past 24 hours.
Region 1890 (S11E03, Ehc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of
the period, an X1/2b flare at 08/0426 UTC. This flare was associated
with a Type II radio sweep (estimated at 800 km/s), a Type IV radio
sweep, and a 100 sfu Tenflare. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME)
was detected in LASCO/C2 imagery starting at 08/0424 UTC and is expected
to have an Earth-directed component. The M2/1n flare from Region 1890,
reported in the previous forecast discussion, was determined to have an
Earth-directed component. Analysis is ongoing to determine the timing
and intensity of these effects. Region 1891 (S18W31, Dac/beta-delta)
produced an M2/1b flare at 08/0928 UTC. Further imagery is needed to
determine the potential impact of this event. A new spot group emerged
on the southeastern limb but has not rotated completely into view.
Forecasters will classify this group once it becomes completely visible.