3rd September


Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period,
a C4 flare at 03/0253 UTC, appeared to originate from a region just
beyond the southeastern limb. Region 2152 (S15W19, Eac/beta-gamma) also
produced a few low level C-class flares during the period. This region
continued to grow, primarily in its intermediate spot area, and show
signs of separation between the leader and trailer spots. Region 2153
(S10W45, Dao/beta) exhibited signs of decay during the period. Region
2154 (S19E29, Cao/beta) continued to show signs of growth, though that
growth rate slowed near the end of the period.

SDO AIA/304 imagery captured a 44 degree long filament, centered near
N32W14, erupting between 02/1300-1600 UTC. The eruption was also evident
in ground-based H-alpha imagery from the GONG facilities. Initial
analysis indicated there is an Earth-directed component of the coronal
mass ejection (CME), set to arrive early to midday on 6 Sep, just
outside this forecast period. Further analysis will be conducted on this
CME and adjustments to the forecast will be made accordingly.

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