Tonight’s estimated aurora level:
Level 2 – Low (with potential)
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).
SWPC have a Kp5 watch active due to a CME that was expected to be produce G1 solar storm. It has began to arrive, but it looks very weak, so we do not think it will get anywhere near Kp5. Speed and density are reasonable, so if the Bz component changes southward it could produce some good aurora shows, but so far, it doesn’t look like doing that. Worth keeping an eye on hourly aurora forecast in case it changes however.
The Bz is now starting to dip southward (it just briefly reached -5 Bz), so there is now more potential this CME could produce something. Keep an eye on it.