30th October


Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium (with potential for higher)

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
We are believed to be feeling the affects from an X1/2n flare, observed at 0203 UTC on 28 Oct. It is a relatively weak event, and should not cause geomagnetic storming in itself. But as solar activity has been so active recently, there are other events which could boost kp numbers. Nasa models suggest we have a few weak brushes with CME’s scheduled for tonight, while NOAA SWPC have a G1 storm watch active for tomorrow due to the CME associated with the M4 flare that occurred at 1507 UTC on 28 Oct. That CME is believed to be reasonably strong and is likely travelling fast (in the region of 500 km/s), so as the timing of CME’s has been so poor lately, I would not be surprised if this one turned up early (very late tonight). Nasa models actually confirm our thinking, as they have it down as arriving earlier than the SWPC models. As early as midnight tonight +/- 6 hours either side.

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