29 December


Solar activity reached moderate levels when Region 1936 (S17W00,
Eac/beta-gamma) produced an M3/1n flare at 29/0756 UTC. Region 1934
(N15W47, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) was the most magnetically complex region
but was responsible for only one C2/Sf flare at 28/1315 UTC. Flux
emergence continued in both Regions 1934 and 1936 resulting in a larger
areas and more spots. Flux emergence was also noted near N20E31 and
N06W63 and these regions are being monitored for development. The
remaining regions were stable.

A fast moving CME, first visible at 28/1800 UTC SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery,
was observed on the west limb. The CME was judged too far west to be
geoeffective. Another CME was observed off the southeast limb in C2
imagery around 29/0548 UTC, probably associated with a couple of
filament eruptions near S26E42 between 29/0104-0225 UTC. A preliminary
fit and subsequent WSA-Enlil model run suggests ejecta will merge with a
high speed stream expected after this forecast period. Analysis is
ongoing, however, because the original fit was based on few available
coronagraph images.

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