22nd October


Region 2192 (S15E19, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8 (R2, moderate)
flare at 22/0159 UTC, with no optical counterpart reported, bringing
solar activity to high levels for the period. The event was accompanied
by a Tenflare (590 sfu) and a Type IV radio sweep. Region 2192 also
produced two impulsive M-flares (M1 at 21/1338 UTC and M2/Sf at 22/0517
UTC). The M1 event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (est
speed 876 km/s) at 21/1342 UTC. Another Type II signature was reported
at 21/1249 UTC (est speed 662 km/s). The region continued to grow,
reaching 2410 micro-hemispheres, with intermediate spot development and
leader-trailer separation evident on SDO/HMI intensitygram loops.

The most recently received SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery revealed
three very faint CMEs, first visible at 21/1248, 21/1724 and 21/2128
UTC. None were observed in C3 imagery, but appeared to be associated
with narrow plumes of material ejected from the southern portion of
Region 2192, evident in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. Another plume was noted
beginning at 22/0239 UTC, but corresponding coronagraph imagery has not
yet been received. In each case, the material is ejected to the south.
Similar to the analysis of yesterday’s CME, these faint, slow events are
not thought to pose a significant threat. Further analysis will be
conducted as imagery is received.

Elsewhere on the disk, both Regions 2187 (S08W60, Cso/beta) and 2194
(S13E51, Cso/beta) were stable, while new intermediate spots emerged in
Region 2193 (N04W25, Dao/beta).

Finally, a new region has begun to rotate on in the northeast quadrant
of the disk and is being evaluated.

.Forecast…
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate to high levels. There is a
slight but persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over
the next three days (22-24 Oct) from this same region.

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