17th November

Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2209
(S14E24, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M5 flare at 16/1748 UTC and
an associated 300 sfu Ten cm radio burst. There did not appear to be a
coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the event in SDO/AIA nor
SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. This region exhibited slight decay of
the smaller leader spot, with slight growth in the large trailer spots.
A C6 flare was observed in GOES-15 SXI imagery at 17/0907 UTC. This
flare appeared to be just beyond the West limb near the approximate
location of old Region 2205 (N15, L=001). LASCO coronagraph imagery will
be analyzed as it becomes available to determine if there was an
associated CME. The rest of the spotted regions continued to be in a
decay phase with the exception of newly numbered Region 2214 (S13E53,
Cro/beta) which emerged on the SE limb.

Reanalysis of the CME associated with the M3/1n flare at 15/2046 UTC
suggests there was likely an Earthward portion of the plasma cloud, with
an expected arrival at Earth near midday on 19 Nov. However, with an
estimated speed of approximately 475 km/s and the solar wind environment
forecast to already be enhanced by the coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS), little impact is expected as the CME will likely be absorbed
in the high speed stream.

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
for the next three days (17-19 Nov) with a chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong or greater) during the period. Region 2209 continues to be
the likely source for significant flaring.

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