15th October


Solar activity reached moderate levels with impulsive M1 flare (R1 radio
blackout) at 14/1837 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare (1300
sfu), but no other CME related radio signatures. The flare appeared to
have originated beyond the east limb in the vicinity of Old Regions 2172
and 2173. These regions are expected to return over the next 24 hours.

A CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery,
first visible at 13/1900 UTC. Analysis using C3 imagery suggested a
plane-of-sky speed near 800 km/s for the ejecta. Its origin beyond the
east limb makes interaction with Earth unlikely.

A long duration M-class event followed shortly after from the same
vicinity. It began at 14/1907 UTC and had reached a peak of M2 by
14/2121 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare of 180 sfu.

Two new regions were numbered overnight, Region 2090 (N23E53, Bxo/beta)
and 2191 (S13E48, Bxo/beta) but otherwise unremarkable. The remaining
regions on the disk were stable.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next three days (15-17
Oct) as old Regions 2172 and 2173 return. C-class events will be
likely, with a slight but increasing chance of an M-class (R1-minor
radio blackout) event.

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